If the optical industry only felt the "chill" in the first three quarters, it will enter a real "severe winter" in the fourth quarter.

 

 

 

On Oct. 18, Intel subsidiary Mobileye said its initial public offering target valuation of about $16 billion, less than 1/3 of the previous expectation ($50 billion). ", or even "ankle chop".

 

 

 

After communication with the optical industry chain multiple channels, tide electricity think tank predicted that both cell phone camera modules, CMOS chips, lenses, motors and other structural components, the industry as a whole shipments compared to the first half will have 15-20% decline.

 

 

In fact, there are early signs.

 

 

Suntech announcement shows that September cell phone camera module shipments of 36.933 million units, down 31.2% year-on-year. Its July, August camera module shipments were 36.793 million, 38.717 million, the third quarter three months of shipments fell by more than 30% year-on-year.

 

 

Its September cell phone lens shipments of 95,560,000 units, down 27.9% year-on-year.

 

 

 

 

Another cell phone camera module maker Quti's shipments are infinitely close to Sunyu's, even overtaking it in July, but this is not worth celebrating, because its camera module shipments also fell nearly 20% year-on-year in September, and the overall situation in the first three quarters was not optimistic. Car field into the relatively late, because the certification cycle is long, now temporarily difficult to scale up the volume.

 

 

Tide electricity think tank Wang Huan believes that "as the head of the enterprise, Sunyu and Quti optical product shipments behind a sharp decline, meaning that other small companies orders reduced by at least fifty percent or more, even the soup is not to drink."

 

 

Inside the volume of powerless, some tiny optical companies will die sadly in this winter.

 

 

On the contrary, the energy storage industry, since the end of September since the battery supply shortage continues, the suspension of enterprises to take orders is quite common. Especially since this year, Europe suffered an energy crisis, fossil energy prices rose sharply, the market demand for energy storage products surged, China's battery exports ushered in explosive growth. Customs data show that in the first eight months of this year, China's lithium-ion energy storage batteries accumulated exports of $29.926 billion, an increase of 82.97% year-on-year.

 

 

"This scene, at the beginning of the rise of multi-camera and high pixel in smartphones, the high light period of the optical industry has also appeared." Yang Xianqi (a pseudonym), an executive of a first-line domestic optical manufacturer and a senior industry expert, said that the current entry into the industrial cycle is a test of the comprehensive strength of the company's products, capital and resources.

 

 

Supply chain setbacks, the brand end of the day is also difficult.

 

 

Very close to the source of Sunyu revealed that the root cause of the company's Q3 cell phone optical products continue to decline sharply, because the brand terminal is extremely hard to inventory. According to tide electricity think tank understand, from samsung to huawei, millet, oppo, vivo, glory and other android whole system are varying inventory, the leading "pus head" need to be squeezed out as soon as possible or even cut. You know, eight years ago, "China Cool Union" is collapsed in the inventory.

 

 

Even the least worried about selling Apple is not willing to take the risk of high inventory. According to reports, Apple plans to manufacture 90 million new iPhones in the second half of the year, but because of the dismal sales of the iPhone 14 series this year, Apple has decided to reduce production of iPhone 14 series phones by about 10 million.

 

 

Whether "lie" or "volume", the industry does not hold much hope for a short-term rebound in the consumer electronics industry.

 

 

Yang Xianqi said bluntly, "In fact, after the third quarter represents the big picture this year has been decided, we Q4 just think about how to the lowest cost, according to the original plan to complete the production delivery plan."

 

 

The only possibility is the local volume change brought about by the competition for individual orders among manufacturers.

 

 

Xiao Hu is the head of sales of an optical lens company, this time leading the team is still making a final effort for this year's orders. "Charge sales is one side, the greater strategic significance is to enhance the market share and deepen the relationship with customers."

 

 

Mourning is never the declaration of optical people. According to the tide electricity think tank understand, most optical manufacturers are in the initiative to protect the cold: on the one hand, the big practice of internal strength, and actively do a good job of technology iteration reserve; on the other hand into new areas, and constantly broaden the product application and customer boundary.